Monday, 4 October 2010

Tianjin talks

Delegates have gathered at Tainjin in China, for the latest round of talks in the run up to November's UN COP16 talks which will be held in Cancun, Mexico see here or a live webcast from the floor here

The talks are meant to last until Saturday.

The meeting in Tianjin in China is to negotiate a draft treaty to be debated at Cancun, next month.

With the shadow of the failure at Copenhagen looming over them, one hopes that our politicans will be able to step up and get real, however I am not confident and Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has already warned
"Let me be clear - there is no magic bullet, no one climate agreement that will solve everything right now,"

So what can we expect? more competing national interests and next month a mediocre deal, which even if it is binding, will not go far enough or actually be enforced?

I hope not but my cynical self wonders.


  1. Trying to remain optimistic feels like a huge task at the moment...I don't think anyone cares at all anymore. What with the endless "cut backs" talk, the only thing we seem to be interested in is how much money they are going to take away from us. In the meanwhile, the land is dying...

  2. I do not feel optimistic. I believe that we are facing at least a 3 degree C global mean temperature rise (more likely 4-6 degrees C) by 2100 and perhaps sooner.
    CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is rising and we do not know where the tipping points actually are. Our whole premise in the Stern report that we can go to 550ppm CO2e and then reduce our emissions is very precarious indeed. We may well pass a tipping point such as the permafrost melting and releasing methane which could tip us into higher temperatures.

    Geoengineering might offer some relief, but the "artificial volcano" release of Sulphur aerosols which is the cheapest and most easily achievable would have to be continued year after year and if there was anything like a big volcanic eruption (for example Yellowstone) the effects could be catastrophic.

    Our window of opportunity is very short and we are frittering it away.
    One real positive though is the Transition movement. You never know, it might work.